Note from BW of Brazil: After the tragedy of the plane crash that killed the PSB’s presidential candidate Eduardo Campos on August 13th in Santos, São Paulo, his running mate Marina Silva, who surprised voters with her showing in the 2010 election, stepped into the race, leap-frogged over other candidates and was running neck and neck with incumbent, President Dilma Rousseff. For several weeks, polls of intended voters were predicting that Silva could even unseat Rousseff in an eventual run-off vote. But as the weeks rolled on and voters started noting apparent contradictions in Silva’s comments as well as a questionable presidential agenda, the honeymoon was quickly over and it showed in the numbers as Silva began a downward spiral. After running polling even with Rousseff at 36% apiece, Rousseff has ascended to 40% while Silva has plunged to 25%, only five points ahead of third place candidate, the PSDB’s Aécio Neves (1). Now, poll numbers are showing that Rousseff would win in a runoff with Silva although this depends heavily on a large percentage of voters who are still undecided.
What happened?
First it has to do with Silva’s campaign itself as suggested above. It also has to do with the fact that many Brazilians don’t trust her due to her political and financial allegiances but also the advances made by 12 years of the Workers’ Party (PT) leading the country, 8 with Lula da Silva and 4 with Rousseff. Although there is a strong conservative element in Brazil, there appear to be more people who support PT policies that have lifted 30-40 million people out of poverty as well as increasing the number of Brazilians into the middle class while Silva is being pegged as the candidate who retard this process, take care of elites and put a halt to a decade plus of gains. We previously highlighted (here and here) the problems that Silva already had in garnering the support of black Brazilians, even as the only black candidate in the race and the possibility of becoming Brazil’s first black president. The associations made with Silva threaten to totally derail her campaign as pointed out in the articles below.
France has already discovered: “Marina is the new right,” says L’Humanité
Courtesy of Ruas e Redes
The French have already understood. This week’s edition of the French magazine L’Humanité describes the PSB presidential candidate, Marina Silva, as nouvelle droite brésiliene (Read up nuvéli drroá brréziliêne). In good Portuguese: a nova direita brasileira. In English: Brazil’s new right.
In a three-page report, the publication says that what is at stake in Brazil is “the continuation of a progressive politics or return to an undercover neoliberal project.” It continues that, for Brazil, Marina Silva means “the annulment of 12 years of progress”, and refers to two important examples: low unemployment and high minimum wage.
L’Humanité explains: “The ecologist candidate embodies this South American ‘new right’. She attacks the regional alliances and wants to re-launch the free trade treaty with the United States – blocked by Lula’s victory in 2002. Her campaign team brings together former government ministers from the right, such as André Lara Resende and Giannetti da Fonseca, and Neca Setúbal, heiress of the Itaú bank.”
Illustrated by a photo of a cult led by Marco Feliciano, the report also criticizes the retreat of the candidate on the issue of homosexuality, “her retreat on the issue of homosexuality, to appeal to evangelical voters, shows up as a true problem, because it makes her already confusing government program always change. The whole question is now, to what point will her convictions weigh on this issue.”
Marina, the new Brazilian right
by Miguel do Rosário
…The right, in Brazil, cannot even be confused with the austere but nationalist conservatism of the European or American right. The Brazilian right is the worst right in the world because besides being anti-people it is also submissive, anti-national, anti-democratic favorable to a coup d’etat. In the cover story, L’Humanité accuses Marina of being a “creation of Washington to overthrow Dilma Rousseff.”
In her new analysis on the electoral framework, journalist Tereza Cruvinel a Brasil 247 columnist, explains why Marina Silva stopped growing and begun the process of falling in the polls: the reason of the rejection is due to her own contradictions.
Rejection of Marina Silva grows
09/11/2014
By Tereza Cruvinel
In a Vox Populi poll today (9/11), Marina Silva appears with a 40% rejection rate, compared with 42% of Dilma Rousseff. A technical draw in the margin of error, suggesting a high growth of rejection for Marina. The Vox Populi survey does not allow an exhaustive statement in this regard because there was not another from the same institute in previous weeks, thus the comparison becomes methodologically inadequate. However, a comparison with rejection rates of other recent research institutes suggests strong growth of rejection of Marina, to be confirmed by further rounds.
In research by IBOPE seven days ago, for example, Marina only had a 12% rejection rate, and Dilma 31%, a rate almost three times higher. In Datafolha released six days ago, Marina had a rejection rate of 16%, and Dilma twice that at 32%.
In Rousseff’s campaign, it is believed that this likely increase in rejection is due to the explanation of the contradictions and weaknesses of the candidacy of Marina, carried out by Dilma in the debates and electoral programs. The issues that would have most weighed on the increased rejection and produced the first signs that Marina stopped growing and began to deflate would be, according to qualitative research conducted for the PT, her retreat on the issue of homosexual unions to appease pastor (Silas) Malafaia (2), her linking to Neca Setúbal, of Banco Itaú (Itaú Bank) (3), the little emphasis on pré-sal (pre-salt) (4) and the proposal of an independent Central Bank. All these issues have been well explored in the past by Dilma.
The latest research shows that the line of the campaign is correct, says a PT director, renouncing the first attack on Marina when she was compared to former presidents Fernando Collor (1990-1992) or Jânio Quadros (1961) (5). What we will do going forward, he says, is to stay focused on the contradictions and weaknesses, calling the electorate to decide between the continuation of what was done in PT governments and the change to a very unclear project and permeated by indications of discontinuity.
But it’s necessary to await further research that allows comparison within the series of the same institute, to be sure of an increased Marina rejection rate.
She’s from the right stupid!
by Davis Sena Filho
During her election campaign, Maria Osmarina Silva de Souza, Marina Silva, disguised, manipulated and lied. The “Sonhática” (dreamer) made statements with desconcatenadas (loss of concatenation, order and coherence) ideas, on purpose, because she knew that her government program is more to the right of the tucano (PSDB candidate) Aécio Neves, the other candidate for president of the conservative spectrum, whose party, the PSDB, headed by former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (6) – Neoliberal I – sold Brazil.
In turn, the “prince” of sociologists considered “genius” by the bourgeois, petty bourgeois (middle class) and journalists and their bosses who fight in the Partido da Imprensa Golpista (PIG or Pro-coup Press Party) (7) went to the IMF three times, on his knees, humiliated and with saucer in hand, because he broke Brazil three times. Marina comprises all what happened in the powerful Latin and South American country, but was co-opted by the Casa Grande (slave master’s house), and, it seems, she loved its luxurious lounges, as if she were dazzled. Whoever has never eaten molasses when they eat they lick.
The Casa Grande candidate, ie, of the bankers, of the most conservative sectors of industry and commerce, the “coxinhas” (8) of the middle class (who cannot stand to see the poor frequent the places they frequent), of the capitalists and multinational NGOs, besides being intimate with the interests of the governments of the rich and hegemonic countries, never administered anything competently. When she headed the Ministry of Environment for almost six years, her results were meager, and in two years her successor, Deputy Carlos Minc, has obtained much better results than those of Marina Silva. Whoever doesn’t believe this, search the internet and make comparisons.
Marina Silva does not dialogue. She imposes. She doesn’t misconstrue or falter when it comes to achieving her interests and those of entities she represents. She becomes obsessive. Marina became a politician of the right, as her government program attests to what I say. Its programmatic essence goes to meets alien theories, with respect to meeting the interests of the international establishment, but contrary to the interests of Brazil.
Propositions which aims to impose on the countries of the third world and rapidly developing, the example of Brazil, her agendas that are relative to ecology, biodiversity, the different ecosystems, and finally, forests, seas, rivers and oceans. Marina participates in this multinational gear with global prominence. And it could not be otherwise, after the “Sonhática” is a fierce militant of these causes, in addition to being a candidate for president of a country that is the world’s seventh largest economy and has become the protagonist of a diplomacy not aligned with the interests of the US and European Union.
Marina, the candidate of “sustainability” and “new politics”, along with Aécio Neves, is the hope of the most conservative sectors of the bourgeoisie of returning Brazil back to its subordinate status and dependence on Western countries of colonialist characters.
Note from BW of Brazil: Although one could say that the arguments made above are only opinions, but when one looks at how the financial market is reacting to Dilma’s resurgence, it would be hard to disagree with these conclusions. This is how the latest poll numbers were reported in the Buenos Aires Herald:
“The Brazilian real fell to a near six-year low and the benchmark Bovespa index notched its biggest one-day drop in more than three years yesterday, falling 4.5 percent, after new polls showed President Dilma Rousseff increasing her lead over Marina Silva ahead of Sunday’s crucial presidential election.
“The head of state’s campaign for re-election is gaining momentum and Rousseff, now leading in all opinion polls, has said she has no plans to radically alter her policies if she re-elected for a second, four-year term. Silva, on the other hand, has indicated she is more keen on cutting government spending.
“Analysts said the stock market had sent Rousseff and her Workers’ Party (PT) a strong message, with Bloomberg saying yesterday the Bovespa had scored “the biggest monthly drop among global equity benchmarks.”
“In the currency markets meanwhile, Brazil’s real headed for its biggest quarterly drop since September, 2011. The currency declined 9.5 percent in the third quarter, analysts said, the worst performance among 24 emerging-market currencies after Russia’s ruble.”
Note from BW of Brazil: In other words, all signs are pointing to international markets preferring a Silva presidency while progressives who want to to keep the country in the same direction prefer Rousseff. Since September 3rd before Silva’s number began a serious slide, 1 US Dollar was worth 2.23 Brazilian Reais (1 USD = 2.23 BRL). But since then, the Real has consistently slid against the Dollar and this morning, the Dollar equaled 2.50 Reais (1 USD = 2.50 BRL).
Source: Libertar, R7, Brasil Escola, Jornal GGN, Brasil 247, Muda Mais, Buenos Aires Herald
Note
1. Just as an example of how far in advance international politicians and bankers work on the the global scale, “In 2004, George H.W. Bush, father of George W. Bush in a ceremony at the “Spencer House”, home of Lord Rothschild in London, hailed Aécio Neves as the future president of Brazil. At that moment Neves was in the second year of his first term as governor of the state of Minas Gerais. Source
2. Silas Malafaia (born 14 September 1958) is a Brazilian evangelical pastor, author, and televangelist, who also has a degree in Psychology. He is the leader of the pentecostal church Assembleia de Deus Vitória em Cristo. He is married to Elizete Malafaia. Malafaia is the CEO of the gospel publisher Central Gospel, he is also the vice-president of the Brazilian interdenominational council of the evangelical ministers CIMEB), which is made up of approximately 8.500 ministers and leaders of Protestants churches. A highly controversial figure in Brazil, Malafaia is known for his strong opposition to homosexual marriage and abortion. His critics accuse him of being a ‘bigot’ and ‘homophobic’, which he denies. According to a Forbes Magazine publication, his total net worth is estimated at $150 million (Source). The pastor stirred the social networks on Saturday, August 29th, with messages against Silva’s government program that promised to submit a bill for the approval of gay marriage. Hours later, the Marina campaign issued a statement saying it “erred” on the subject and make an addendum. (Source)
3. Defined by Nonato Viegas as “the billionaire who heads Marina Silva’s campaign.” Heiress of Banco Itaú, Setúbal is considered “the right-hand woman of the presidential candidate.” Source
4. Pré-sal or Pre-salt is the name given to hydrocarbon reserves in limestone rocks that lie below layers of salt. It’s the oil (petro) discovered in layers 5-7 thousand meters below sea level. It is a layer of approximately 800 km long by 200 km wide, ranging from the coast of the state of Santa Catarina to the coast of the state of Espírito Santo between Brazil’s south and southeast. The discussion about the existence of an oil reserve in the pre-salt layer has occurred since the 1970s, when geologists of the Brazilian multi-national energy company Petrobras believed in this fact, however, didn’t have enough technology to conduct more advanced research. (Source)
5. Collor was the 32nd President of Brazil from 1990 to 1992, when he resigned in a failed attempt to stop his trial of impeachment by the Brazilian Senate. (Source) Quadros resigned in August of 1961 after only seven months as president (Source). His successor, vice president João Goulart assumed the presidency but was ousted by a Military Coup d’Etat in March of 1964.
6. Fernando Henrique Cardoso (born June 18, 1931), also known by his initials FHC, was the 34th President of Brazil and served for two terms from January 1, 1995 to January 1, 2003. An accomplished sociologist, professor and politician, Cardoso was awarded in 2000 with the prestigious Prince of Asturias Award for International Cooperation. (Source) As a sociologist, Cardoso released groundbreaking studies on the existence of racism in Brazil and later, he became the first Brazilian president to admit the existence of racism and opened the door for the creation of policies in pursuit of racial equality. As president in 1995, he also presided over the introduction of the current Brazilian currency, the Real.
7. Partido da Imprensa Golpista (PIG or Pro-coup Press Party) is a term used by left-wing Brazilian websurfers since 2007 to characterize an alleged attitude of the Brazilian mass media towards President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva during the 2006 presidential election. Source
8. A coxinha is actually a fried snack made out of chicken. Used in a derogatory sense, it is used as an insult describing a bourgeois teen who wears name brand clothing, goes to famous/popular dances/clubs and Starbucks.
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